Professor David Spiegelhalter

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

Five rules for evidence communication

M Blastland, ALJ Freeman, S van der Linden, TM Marteau, D Spiegelhalter

– Nature

(2020)

587,

362

(doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-03189-1)

Making prognostic algorithms useful in shared decision-making: Patients and clinicians’ requirements for the Predict:Breast Cancer interface

GD Farmer, GM Pearson, WJ Skylark, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter

(2020)

(doi: 10.1101/2020.11.16.20232348)

Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study.

AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox

– The BMJ

(2020)

371,

m3731

(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3731)

Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study

ALJ Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, CR Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, DJ Spiegelhalter

(2020)

2020.10.05.20206961

(doi: 10.1101/2020.10.05.20206961)

Use of "normal" risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19

D Spiegelhalter

– The BMJ

(2020)

370,

m3259

(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3259)

Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk.

GD Smith, D Spiegelhalter

– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)

(2020)

369,

m2063

(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m2063)

The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.

AM van der Bles, S van der Linden, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter

– Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

(2020)

117,

7672

(doi: 10.1073/pnas.1913678117)

Should We Trust Algorithms?

D Spiegelhalter

– Harvard data science review

(2020)

(doi: 10.1162/99608f92.cb91a35a)

The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers

AM van der Bles, SVD Linden, A Freeman, D Spiegelhalter

(2020)

(doi: 10.31234/osf.io/vbtg3)

Introducing the art of statistics: How to learn from data

D Spiegelhalter

– Numeracy

(2020)

13,

(doi: 10.5038/1936-4660.13.1.7)

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